2024 Looking Back...
Once again we look back at notable events from the year past, where we saw the rise of AI, new space systems, GPS spoofing, quantum developments, and solar storms.
AI is Hungry
Artificial Intelligence (AI) was big news in 2024, not just for its enormous capability, but also for its voracious appetite for power and water. This AI boom is "accelerating the climate crisis," and one study estimates that AI searches use "30 times as much energy" as a normal search engine.
This is not dampening enthusiasm for AI, but it is forcing data centers to consider building their own nuclear power plants, as well as new computer and data center designs that include better timing. It may seem non-intuitive, but better synchronization improves the performance of distributed databases and prevents power surges caused by the processing of large language models.
The New Space Race
Space may be the Final Frontier, but like the American Frontier, a Gold Rush speeds up expansion.
There is a sudden realization that space has value - a lot of value - and is not just a playground for government bragging rights (see below).
New space systems are addressing the needs for global communications, exploration, imagery, and, of course, position, navigation and timing (PNT). As a natural side effect, it is also spurring the development of anti-satellite systems making space a contested battleground, and a trend, which is likely to accelerate, of government agencies relying more on innovative commercial space companies to own the skies.
Spoofing is the New Jamming
2024 was deemed the "The Year of GPS Jamming and Spoofing," but spoofing has now become the much bigger concern. Jamming is analogous to “yelling really loud” while spoofing is analogous to “mimicking somebody else’s voice." As such, jamming is easy to implement and detect, while spoofing is more dangerous because it moves the signal making it difficult to detect. Unfortunately, it has also gotten easier, leading to a 400% surge in reported spoofing incidents for commercial flights.
The reliance on GPS as a single point of failure for the modern world has spurred alternative PNT (Alt PNT) solutions, with the realization that innovation should come from the private sector.
The Acceleration of Quantum Investment
As we enter the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology (IYQ), quantum investment and developments also increased rapidly.
While quantum computers get all the headlines, people are starting to recognize the potential for quantum sensors and communications to solve the aforementioned GPS spoofing and jamming problems. It turns out quantum technologies are well-suited for next-generation Alt PNT systems that can leverage sensitive quantum position sensors, ultra stable clocks, and unspoofable time transfer using entangled photons (that's where we come in).
Solar Storms are Ramping Up
The Sun is also celebrating the new year with fireworks of its own, releasing a pair of strong X-ray flares and warnings of "a pair of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME)." This is a fitting start to a year that may be the maximum for the Sun's eleven year solar cycle (though some think Solar Maximum is behind us). These solar storms pose a threat to power grids, GPS and other RF signals, and may have been responsible for the “largest 'mass migration' of satellites in history.”
Fortunately, in the decade since the last Solar Maximum,early detection and preventive measures have been put into place so we can weather the next set of major solar storms "without any major serious consequences."
Last Week's Theme: How to Stop the Drone Invasion
2024 was a big year for Xairos!
Some highlights:
- Signed five new contracts! These projects allowed us to quadruple our revenue and our team, while giving us the funding and program oversight necessary to build out our vision for a global timing service for commercial networks and resilient PNT.
- Kicked off two internal development projects to help us develop a portable demonstration kit and new simulation model, hardware, and security algorithms.
- Appointed a new Board of Advisors to help guide our business development and corporate strategy.
- Conferences, marketing and outreach included presentations at:
- Rocky Mountain Photonics Summit & Expo "Quantum Time Transfer" presentation
- European Navigation Conference "Quantum Time Transfer for Accurate and Resilient PNT" presentation
- SpaceWERX Alt PNT Showcase as one of 18 companies selected to "enhance the resilience and accuracy of satellite-based navigation systems beyond traditional Global Navigation Satellite systems."
- IQT Quantum+AI "Where Timing Meets Quantum" panel
- Extensive customer discovery with participation at conferences, including: Satellite 2024, Space Symposium, WSTS, ESA Industry Space Days, Quantum World Congress, International Conference on Space Optics, ITSF, UK National Quantum Technologies Showcase, UK PNT Leadership Seminar, and the DOD Commercial Satcom Workshop
- Part of the Elevate Quantum team that led to Colorado's designation as a Quantum Tech Hub. Part of that support included joining the Colorado Governor on trade missions to strengthen international cooperation and create a new Quantum Front Range.
Happy New Year!
- As commercial satellite systems expand, more officials have expressed their concern about threats to these satellites that include satellite cyber attacks.
- The 31st US Space-Based PNT Advisory Board meeting was held with a stated goal "to continue the focus on Protect, Toughen, and Augment (PTA) and the board’s efforts to reassess GPS as the world’s gold standard."
- The Space Foundation "Solar Storms and Space Weather: Understanding the Risks" report evaluates how solar storms "impact satellites, terrestrial infrastructure, and even daily life on Earth."
- OPSGROUP released their "GPS Spoofing WorkGroup 2024" report with practical advice for pilots that experience spoofing, including pre-flight tips like "Check online spoofing map for latest locations of active spoofing" and "Synch mechanical watch to known source (e.g. iPhone) at dispatch, in preparation for aircraft clock failure."
- Is time an illusion? Does consciousness come from a quantum basis? Some fun conversation starters for your New Years eve party.
- Consumer Electronics Show, January 5 - 7, Las Vegas, NV (Visit us at our Booth)
- GeoBuiz Summit, January 13 - 15, Denver, CO (On a Panel)
- Photonics West, January 25 - 30, San Francisco, CA
- ITTM/PTI, January 27 - 28, Long Beach, CA
- Ground System Architecture Workshop (GSAW), February 24 - 28, El Segundo, CA (Presenting)
- Satellite 2025, March 10 - 14, Washington DC
- Space Symposium, April 7 - 10, Colorado Springs, CO (Stay Tuned!)
- Nemertes [NEXT], April 7 - 10, Nashville, TN (Presenting)
- Workshop on Synchronization and Timing Systems (WSTS), May 12 - 15, 2025, Savannah, GA
- European Navigation Conference, May 21 - 23, 2025, Wroclaw, Poland
2024 was a big year for new space developments, spurred by the cheaper access to space enabled by a quarter trillion dollars of investment over the past decade.
Communications has always been a major commercial satellite business, but the success of Starlink's global broadband service has led to commercial competitors like Iridium, OneWeb, O3b mPOWER, Kuiper, Globalstar, Lightspeed, and E-Space, as well as new mega-constellations announced by China and Europe.
There is also a race to the moon as China, US, Europe, Japan, and India look to establish a permanent presence and a new lunar economy that isn’t reliant on only tourism. But before you can establish a colony on the moon, first you need to establish a Lunar Time standard and a Lunar GPS. NASA, China, and the European Space Agency (ESA), are all on the case.
All of this activity led to a World Economic Forum and McKinsey & Company report that claims "that lower costs and improved access to space-enabled technologies such as communications; positioning, navigation and timing; and Earth observation services could take the global space economy to $1.8T by 2035."