The Rise, Fall, and Rise Again of NTNs
The convergence of satellite and cellular is all the rage lately, enabled by the growth of non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) that fulfill a vision of true global uninterrupted communications.
This isn't a new concept though.
In the latter part of the twentieth century, satellites were the only option for remote communications.
In this "Old Space" era, large expensive satellites were controlled by space agencies, telcos, and multi-national satellite operators.
Then along came Iridium with an audacious plan to provide global mobile telephone communications.
Unfortunately, this first iteration of the NTN failed badly: “Planned in the mid-1980s, the system was archaic by the time it was deployed in 1998, offering global communications from a brick-size, $3,000 phone at charges from $6 to $30 a minute.”
As cell towers and fiber networks expanded in the 21st century, satellite operators pivoted to enterprise and direct-to-home broadcasts (like DirecTV and DISH), backhaul, remote and mobile communications.
Then came the New Space era.
Nearly 2000 new companies backed by over $1/4T since 2010 transformed the space industry and inspired a new generation of NTNs like Starlink, a resurrected Iridium, OneWeb, O3b mPOWER, Kuiper, Globalstar, and Lightspeed.
So what's changed?

1. The cost of satellite systems dropped by orders of magnitude.
2. There are still 2.9B unconnected people across the globe.
3. And, most important, the ubiquity of the internet linking to 18 billion cell phones has created an addiction to connectivity. We now expect it everywhere.

The NTNs are still in early stages, but they are already forcing change among traditional satellite operators, and are even starting to make the telcos wary.
The other potential disruption: the relationship between government and commercial space (see below).
The roles are reversing.

Last Week's Theme: "One Satellite Signal Rules Modern Life"

• Funded projects going strong as we wrap up a set of deliverables, prepare for a design review in May, and finalize contract negotiations on two other projects.
• Preparing for a busy week of meetings at Space Symposium in Colorado Springs. Let us know if you are attending and want to meet!
• Looking ahead to the Rocky Mountain Photonics Summit & Expo next week, and travel to the Workshop on Synchronization and Timing Systems and European Navigation Conference after that.
• New IP in development expanding on our core quantum timing technology and system architectures.

• Reports of GPS jamming of airlines are increasing throughout Europe, noting that during the first two months of 2024 there were "985 GPS outages compared with 1,371 for the whole of 2023." Of particular concern is the Baltic region that experienced jamming for 47 consecutive hours affecting at least 1,614 aircraft.
• GPS jamming is also a problem in the Middle East, forcing flights into Beirut "to use alternatives to GPS to help them land because of jamming and “spoofing”.
• Another side effect: impacts to dating apps that "suggest hookups between people living in enemy states on two sides of a border that has become an active war zone."
• The recent news about a Russian “space-based nuclear anti-satellite weapon” is leading to concern about a possible "Space Pearl Harbor."
• Researchers believe that human existence depends on gravitational waves "that are generated by the accelerated masses of binary stars and other motions of gravitating masses, and propagate as waves outward from their source at the speed of light." Certain elements that are necessary for human life are theorized to have come from "kilonovas" that are caused by gravitational waves.
• Previously we highlighted the difference between quantum computing, sensing, and communications. Who's going to space first? Quantum comms satellites are already on orbit and space-bound quantum sensors are in development. And quantum computers? Not a chance.
• We also mentioned the need to set up a separate Lunar Standard Time. The US government agrees.
• The upcoming eclipse may seem like a rare event, but is actually relatively commonplace, according to this interesting presentation. This particular eclipse is part of the 139th saros cycle that lasts roughly 18 years and has, on average, 42 solar eclipses.

• Space Symposium, April 8 - 11, Colorado Springs, Colorado
• Rocky Mountain Photonics Summit & Expo, April 18, Westminster, Colorado
• Workshop on Synchronization and Timing Systems, May 7 - 9, San Diego, California
• European Navigation Conference, May 21 - 24 , Noordwijk, Netherlands
• Assured PNT Summit, May 29 - 30, National Harbor, Maryland
• IEEE International Conference on Communications (ICC) 2024, June 9-13, Denver, Colorado
• Q2B Tokyo, July 19 - 20, Tokyo, Japan
• International Conference on Computer Communications and Networks (ICCCN 2024), July 29-31, Hawaii, USA
• Quantum World Congress 2024, September 9 - 11, Tysons, Virginia
• World Space Business Week, September 16 - 20, Paris, France
• International Timing and Sync Forum 2024, November 4 - 7, Seville, Spain

Government and military agencies tend to own their own space assets, but that is starting change.
Part of this movement is to increase the resilience of mission-critical space assets "in the face of system failures, environmental challenges, or adversary actions."
Up until recently, satellites "were designed for a peaceful, benign environment without a threat."
But those days are over - adversaries have demonstrated many ways to knock out a satellite.
Today, "resiliency is baked into all the conversations" within the US military as they focus on proliferated constellations of satellites that maintain mission functionality "even if some elements are lost."
Stated another way: “We'll put up hundreds and hundreds of satellites…[that] are more affordable than the missiles that you need to shoot them down.”
But change is hard. Military planning is built around large and expensive systems that take many years to deliver.
So the US Department of Defense released their first Commercial Space Integration Strategy "that will allow for commercial-built space solutions to be used for some operations," the US Space Force is developing their own commercial space strategy, and modifications to NTNs are already under consideration.
This is a major shift of philosophy for these groups that realize they need "to take advantage of recent innovations in the commercial space sector, which has experienced exponential growth in technology advancements and capital in recent years."

To learn more, please email us or schedule a meeting here.